February 14, 2026

TL;DR. Iran is in its largest uprising since 1979, with HRANA verifying 7,000+ killed and ministry sources alleging up to 36,500 dead — and February 17–18 chehelom mourning protests could be the next inflection point.

Takeaways

• Verified toll (7,003 killed, 11,021 injured, 42,486 detained) already exceeds every Iranian uprising since 1979 combined; regime's own 3,117 figure includes 25+ duplicated national IDs.
• Iran Health Ministry officials told TIME up to 30,000 were killed on January 8–9 alone during a three-week internet blackout; true count hinges on fate of the disappeared detainees.
• Watch February 17–18: bazaar traders' Telegram channel Eteraz-e Bazar is calling for a Grand Bazaar shutdown on the chehelom (40th day) — the same 40-day mourning cycle that fueled the 1979 revolution.

TL;DR. At Munich 2026, world leaders officially declared the post-1945 order dead — Dalio says we've entered Stage 6 of his Big Cycle: no rules, might is right, great powers clashing.

Takeaways

• Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists." Macron says Europe must prepare for war. Rubio calls it a "new geopolitics era."
• International relations run on raw power, not law — the UN/League failed because they never had more wealth or power than the strongest individual states.
• Five fronts of great-power conflict to watch: trade/economic, technology, capital, geopolitical, and military wars.
• Dalio is releasing all of Chapter 6 ("The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder") from Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order as the framework for what's unfolding.