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@KobeissiLetter: It's Too Obvious. What If AI Doesn't Actually End The World? T…
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TL;DR. The AI doomsday trade is too consensus — falling cognition costs will expand markets, not collapse them, the same way cheap compute did.
Takeaways
- Anthropic's releases are wiping real market cap: IBM's worst day since 2000 on COBOL, CRWD shed $20B in two days after "Claude Code Security," ADBE down 30% YTD.
- The bear case assumes demand is fixed — but every prior cost collapse (PCs, internet, cloud) expanded markets by orders of magnitude instead of shrinking them.
- "Commoditization is not collapse" — AI is commoditizing cognition the way prior tech commoditized compute, distribution, and infrastructure.
- Personal computers are 99.9% cheaper than in 1980, and we consumed vastly more of them, not less — the same pattern likely repeats with cognitive work.