X
On data markets:
@SeanZCaix
TL;DR. Frontier labs are pouring tens of billions into RL data, but they're really buying research outcomes — not datasets — and almost nobody can actually deliver that at scale.
Takeaways
- Anthropic's $1B RL data budget will be "far exceeded" this year; OpenAI is in the same zone, and the window for "banal data projects" (Mercor-style) is rumored to close entirely in 2026.
- What labs pay for is hillclimbing: how directly your data moves SOTA benchmarks and saves the lab's own acquisition effort — not a reusable product.
- The market is still greenfield because few teams have the sophistication for on-demand, consistently QA'd research services; that's the moat, not the data itself.
- Mercor overtook Scale on the semblance of this product; upstarts are now using the same playbook against Mercor/Handshake/Surge.